AMN Plus-October 13, 2026
In the principles of international diplomacy and the legal relations between states, respect for sovereignty, mutual benefit, and constructive dialogue are fundamental. However, senior Egyptian officials have continued to make statements on various platforms that appear to depart from established diplomatic norms and international principles.
Egypt’s adoption of such language stems from its long-standing pursuit of exclusive influence over the Abay Basin and its resistance to what it perceives as a shift in the regional balance of power. Ethiopia’s determination to pursue its development aspirations has increasingly challenged the historical arrangements that have favored downstream countries.
Unable to prevent Ethiopia from exercising its right to pursue the equitable use of its natural resources within its own territory, Cairo has intensified efforts that critics argue are intended to undermine Ethiopia’s internal stability and destabilize the wider region by using neighboring countries as instruments of geopolitical pressure.
Trilateral and quadrilateral meetings and arms transfers have been viewed as attempts to revive an outdated strategy of containing Ethiopia. Although Egyptian leaders frequently present themselves as defenders of their neighbors’ sovereignty and interests, historical experience and developments on the ground offer a different perspective.
Ethiopia has repeatedly made significant sacrifices to support the peace and stability of neighboring countries, including during difficult periods in their histories. When Somalia was overwhelmed by terrorist groups and prolonged instability, Ethiopia paid a heavy price to help restore state authority. Even today, Ethiopia continues to contribute to regional peace and security, bearing considerable costs in the process. By contrast, Egypt’s engagement with these countries is viewed by critics as being driven less by a genuine commitment to their peace and development than by a desire to use regional tensions as leverage against Ethiopia.
Ethiopia’s approach to its neighbors is reflected in its modern development partnerships with Kenya, Djibouti, and South Sudan. The Lamu Port–South Sudan–Ethiopia Transport (LAPSSET) Corridor, cross-border trade initiatives, and electricity interconnection projects with Kenya demonstrate Ethiopia’s commitment to shared growth, economic integration, and peaceful coexistence with neighboring states.
This approach prioritizes people-to-people ties and shared prosperity over geopolitical confrontation. Such a model of regional cooperation, however, appears to challenge Egypt’s traditional approach to regional influence.
Meanwhile, the entry into force of the Nile Basin Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA) and the establishment of the Nile River Basin Commission mark an important development in efforts to promote cooperation among Nile Basin countries. These initiatives seek to establish a framework through which the countries of the basin can pursue the equitable and reasonable utilization of their shared water resources.
The agreement and the emerging institutional framework challenge the notion that historical arrangements should indefinitely determine how the Nile’s waters are used. They also underscore the growing emphasis on cooperation, equitable utilization, and the interests of all basin countries.
Ethiopia’s efforts to secure peaceful and lawful access to the sea and alternative port facilities are likewise driven by its economic and strategic interests and its aspirations for regional integration. Such efforts need not infringe upon the sovereignty of any country; rather, they can create opportunities for broader regional development when pursued through dialogue, mutual agreement, and respect for international law.
The Egyptian leadership’s long-standing efforts to constrain Ethiopia’s development are unlikely to succeed any more today than similar approaches have in the past. Neither verbal threats from Cairo nor alleged geopolitical maneuvers in the region can halt Ethiopia’s determination to pursue development, economic transformation, and prosperity.
By Birhanu Workneh
